December 27th, 2020
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My buddy told me to post here.
The whole argument of statistics depends on the belief that everyone is equally lucky. For example, if both person A and B go to a club, in your world, both have an equal chance of getting laid that night. But the fact is, a lot of it depends on being in the right place at the right time. It depends on a persons luck.
Think of a person you know who you consider to be lucky. I guarantee you know several people who, their whole lives, have been successful just by chance. The person who always makes half court shots even though they never play basketball. If statistics were as numerical as they are being presented, these people would not exist.
I think Dream is one of these lucky people. I mean, think about it. He didn’t go to college and achieved YouTube success so rapidly. You can’t tell me that’s just hard work or dedication or clickbait. Millions of bozos every day post millions of clickbait videos, and the fact that dream was the one who made it out of all those people is just lucky.
In conclusion, yes, statistics can be useful for things like coin flips or sports or even the economy at times, but to rely on them solely in this case is stupid. Dream is just a lucky person, not a cheater.
December 27th, 2020
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As you said: the right place at the right time. In short, you're not wrong initially, but you failed to understand that those "right place and time" are factors (among countless others) in your situation, and isn't applicable in Dream's situation.
There is no such thing as this in RNG, it's pure random (except if you find a way to manipulate it, but the way RNG works in Minecraft make it that Dream couldn't manipulate it for this situation).
And this is not just a "very unlikely event", it's simply virtually impossible. 1 in 20 sextillion of raw luck, it's simply not in the realm of doable.
To give you a better idea of how ridiculous these odds are, let's say all of humanity that ever existed on earth (107 billion) would trade with Piglins at a rate of 1 trade per second for a thousand years. How many guys do you think would get the luck of Dream on average?
Well, I'm going to tell you: NO ONE, in this scenario NOT A SINGLE INSTANCE of this happening is expected.
(Also, regarding Dream success, it's a combination of clickbait, carefully studying the YT algorithm, using literally the biggest name in YT to gain popularity, and also multiple attempts. It's not simply a case of right place, right time).
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Worst argument you ever heard? This is essentially the argument, in formal form:
Premise 1:
Person X has usually been lucky many times before (In statistics, we use variables like X and Y to represent numbers/people/things. Sorry if that's confusing. Just try to remember that when I say X I'm refering to the person that the variable represents.)
Premise 2:
If we consistently observe something in the past, we can expect to probably observe the same thing in the future.
Premise 3 (conclusion):
Therefore, the person in question to who/whom the first premise refers will probably be lucky again in the future.
Now when I say probably, I mean more likely than not. In other words, it means the probability is over 50%, most likely.
Now you're saying that this argument is the worst argument you've ever heard because you disagree with premise 2. But, bro.... you literally cannot disagree with that. It's literally the principle of induction. The only way you can disagree with this is if you disagree with all of logic,,,,
If you need further proof, the formal deductive proof of induction is as follows:
P(n)⇒P(n+1) ( n ) ⇒ P
Now please, just admit that you're simply categorically wrong, without question, and post this comment to r/MurderedByWord.
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Here's a sneak peek of /r/MurderedByWord using the top posts of the year!
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