February 24th, 2021
0
[Question] XPOST From TrueOffMyChest: Should I take this bet? What are the p values and shit
February 24th, 2021
0
Comments:
idothingsheren
This is
dbinom(4, 5, 0.5) + dbinom(5, 5, 0.5)= 0.1875, or 18.75%
2
efrique
But I know my parents wouldn’t be happy knowing I allowed him to gamble
Listen to your parents for a change.
There's more at stake here than money.
2
[deleted]
First we need to work out the probability that you win, P(W).
The probability of 5 heads is (1/2)^5.
The probability of 4 heads is ((1/2)^4 (1/2)^1)*5C4 = P(H) P(H) P(H) P(H) P(T) X the number of ways to arrange the heads.
P(W) = P(0) + P(1) = 0.19
So you will have your fees paid off just under 1 in every 5 attempts. Next we have to find the expected return. Your expected profit will be P(W) * value of loan - P(L) * price of beer, which probably works out pretty well for you, depending on the value of the loans and the beer he wants.
However if he is living with you and banned from watching the lottery, you might want to adjust P(W) to account for the probability that he simply cannot afford to pay off the loan.
8
IgnoreThisName72
Right. What are the odds he has the money? I put it low. Very low. So there is a 81.25% chance of buying beer, and a much less than 1% chance of getting student loans paid off.
1
IMadeYouRead
Let’s say the 2 cases of beer is 50 bucks, plug in the probability’s of winning/losing, and set the equation to 0 to see what the value of the loans would need to be for this to be a worth while bet for OP.
0 = (.1875 Loans) - (.8125 50) Solving for Loans leaves you with $216.67.
The numbers tell us if OPs loans are greater than $217 they should take this offer.
But our hearts/minds tell us you shouldn’t mix family members with a history of gambling addiction and money.
1